The Chinese leader (Jinping) has carefully chosen three countries — France, Serbia and Hungary — that to varying degrees embrace Beijing’s push for a new global order.
On his first visit to Europe in five years, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, appears intent on seizing opportunities to loosen the continent’s bonds with the United States and forge a world freed of American dominance.
The Chinese leader has chosen three countries to visit — France, Serbia and Hungary — that all, to a greater or lesser degree, look askance at America’s postwar ordering of the world, see China as a necessary counterweight and are eager to bolster economic ties.
At a time of tensions with much of Europe — over China’s “no limits” embrace of Russia despite the war in Ukraine, its surveillance state and its apparent espionage activities that led to the recent arrest in Germany of four people — Mr. Xi, who arrived in France on Sunday, wants to demonstrate China’s growing influence on the continent and pursue a pragmatic rapprochement.
For Europe, the visit will test its delicate balancing act between China and the United States and will no doubt be seen in Washington as a none-too-subtle effort by Mr. Xi to divide Western allies. Chinese-French relations “have established a model for the international community of peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation between countries with different social systems,” Mr. Xi said in a statement issued soon after he arrived in Paris.
He has timed his arrival at his second stop, Serbia, to coincide with the 25th anniversary of the deadly NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo war. That mistaken strike on May 7, 1999, for which the White House apologized, killed three Chinese journalists and ignited furious protests around the U.S. Embassy in Beijing.
“For Xi, being in Belgrade is a very economical way to ask if the United States is really serious about international law,” said Janka Oertel, the director of the Asia program at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, “and to say, how about NATO overreach as a problem for other countries?”
The Chinese government has continued to commemorate the Belgrade bombing, using it as an occasion to denounce what it sees as Western hypocrisy and bullying.
“The United States has always considered itself the world leader, or hegemon,” said Tu Xingguan, dean of the Institute of Foreign Trade at the University of Foreign Business and Economics in Beijing. He’s an adversary.” “The European Union does not have a hegemonic mindset.”
The 27-member European Union’s official principles define China as a “cooperating partner, economic competitor and systemic rival.” There is. If that seems cumbersome and perhaps contradictory, it is because the continent is trying to balance economic opportunities in China with national security risks, cybersecurity risks, and economic risks in various industries. This is because they are torn between how to strike a balance.
In March, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters that the European method does not work. “It’s like driving to an intersection and seeing red, yellow and green lights all at the same time,” he said. “How can I continue driving?”
Now, Mr. Xi wants to slowly turn the traffic light green.
To that end, Mr. Xi’s first and most important stop will be France. French President Emmanuel Macron often takes the Gorlist position that Europe “must never become a client state of the United States,” as he did at one point last month.
Speech at Sorbonne University. The French leader insists that the European Union’s survival depends on developing “strategic autonomy” and military resilience to become a “European power”. He rejects the idea of ”equidistance” between China and the United States (France is one of America’s oldest allies), but wants to keep options open.
All this is music to Mr. Xi’s ears.
“President Macron is trying to find a third way in the current global turmoil,” says Philippe Le Cole, a leading French expert on relations with China. “He’s trying to draw a fine line between two great powers.”
Just over a year ago, Mr. Macron said during a visit to China that ended with the declaration of a “global strategic partnership” between China and France. I received a luxurious reception. ”.The French leader reiterated the mantra of a “multipolar” world freed from “blocs” and “Cold War mentality.”
Now, ahead of Mr. Xi’s visit, China praised France as a great power and, in the words of China’s Lu Shaye, said that relations between the two countries have “always been at the forefront of China’s relations with the West.” He expressed his hope that it would be possible. Ambassador to France, People’s Daily.
Mr Macron recently warned that “our Europe is deadly” and would only be saved if Europe could become “sovereign”, but in a personal note at the opening ceremony, on the Monday before He is scheduled to host a state dinner for Mr. Xi in Paris. He went to his childhood favorite place in the Pyrenees.
The chemistry between the two men appears to lie essentially in a shared view that the postwar order is moribund and must be replaced by a new architecture that takes account of shifting power. That Mr. Xi is almost certainly the most repressive and authoritarian leader in recent Chinese history, and that China’s military threats to Taiwan have intensified, has not come between the two leaders.
In the past six months, Mr. Macron has visited both India and Brazil in a push to place France at a fulcrum between the BRICS group of developing countries, which includes China, and Western powers. At a time of growing tension between the “Global South” and Western powers, he sees France as a bridge.
From France, Mr. Xi will move on to the warm embrace of Serbia, where China is the second largest trading partner, and Hungary, where its prime minister, Viktor Orban, has backed enormous Chinese investment and used his country’s position as a European Union member to dilute criticism of China. Both countries bridle at American power.
But beyond these two friendly countries, there are serious differences between Beijing and Europe, whose economy was roughly the same size as the European Union in dollar terms when Xi last visited in 2019. There is. China’s economy is currently expanding by about 15%.
Last fall, the European Union launched an investigation into whether Chinese-made electric cars benefit from unfair subsidies. A decision is expected to be made this summer. This has led to tensions with the Chinese government and with Germany, whose presence in the Chinese car market is small compared to other European countries. China accounts for at least half of Volkswagen’s annual profits.
German manufacturers with factories in China are concerned that European tariffs could affect their exports from China and lead to retaliation.
European Union President Ursula von der Leyen attends talks with Mr. Xi in Paris. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose relationship with Mr Macron has soured, dined with the French president in Paris last week. All this is clearly part of an attempt to build a united European front.
But this is always difficult to figure out.
Anger against Russia in Europe is highest in countries that border Russia, such as Poland and the Baltic states. They are perhaps most obsessed with an alliance with the United States, which Macron hopes to balance by building a sovereign Europe. They are also most suspicious of China, which has never condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Mr. Macron, like Mr. Scholz, who visited China last month, believes that Chinese influence is important to ending the war in Ukraine. France’s assessment is that only the Chinese government can put real pressure on Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, who is set to take office for a fifth term during Mr. Xi’s trip to Europe.
The problem is that, as with Macron’s visit to Beijing last year, China has shown little or no desire to do so. In fact, Mr. Xi plans to welcome Mr. Putin to China later this month.
Francois Godeman, special adviser and senior fellow at the Institut Montaigne in Paris, said of the meeting between Mr Macron and Mr Xi: It is unlikely that we will discuss Ukraine again.”The die is cast.”
Still, there is little doubt that Mr. Macron will try to win Mr. Xi’s support again ahead of the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland in mid-June.
On a deeper level, Mr Macron certainly appears to be trying to use Mr Xi’s visit to advance an agenda that will ensure Europe’s relevance in the coming decades. He is concerned about the United States reelecting former President Donald J. Kennedy. President Trump in November will have unexpected consequences.
Mr. Wang, the Chinese foreign minister, has said, “As long as China and Europe join hands, bloc confrontation will not occur, the world will not fall apart, and a new Cold War will not take place.”
For all of the fundamental differences in governance between China’s one-party state and Western liberal democracy, the leaders of the three European countries Mr. Xi has chosen to visit appear to embrace that Chinese statement.
Reporting was contributed by Olivia Wang from Hong Kong, Keith Bradsher from Beijing, Christopher F. Schuetze and Melissa Eddy from Berlin and Ségolène Le Stradic from Paris.