The ramping up of military action by Israel was done despite western calls for calm as the world braces for further violence. The UAE Breaking explains what is happening now – and next
After Iran appeared to show some restraint, the attack that took place tonight took a long time to come. Now, the most important question is what Israel does next.
In the belief that it has no choice, Israel is now likely to launch significant missile attacks against Iran’s nuclear missile program. The problem with this is that Iran may view this as a threat to its very existence because its entire purpose since the revolution in 1979 has been to force its way into becoming the Middle East’s power broker. Resigning now will be seen as a poor reflection on the Iranian regime, and the momentum toward total war and ongoing missile exchanges may be unstoppable.
The Iranian action was Iran’s long-awaited retaliation for losing so many commanders in its Hezbollah proxy force, including Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran, and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese militant group. Iran’s boundaries were broken when it launched attacks on Hezbollah, which is the country’s most valuable asset abroad and an extension of its military and terrorist dominance.
The war in 2006 lasted just over a month, but it is likely that Israel wanted to take advantage of the opportunity while Hezbollah was so crippled, having lost hundreds of fighters and commanders in airstrikes. Picture Tonight’s missile strike means that the ongoing violence could last for a few months. However, Tehran has finally decided to act and launch significant strikes against Israel in support of its Lebanese proxy, putting the situation in grave danger.
It’s possible that Israel calculated that the West, led by the United States, would support Tel Aviv in any way if Iran did not explicitly get involved. However, it has now attacked, and Iran, even though it believes it has kept its cool, may face significant Israeli attacks in the coming hours and days.
Israel and Iran are now engaged in an open military conflict, and it’s possible that the West will be drawn into it within days. Instability will result from a larger regional conflict, which will have global repercussions.
One million people have been forced from their homes in Lebanon, but Iran’s loose allies Russia, North Korea, and China are keeping an eye on things, and the conflict in Ukraine raises the possibility of a third world war. Others believe that has already begun, albeit in a different form in what contemporary analysts refer to as “hybrid warfare,” which includes covert military operations, destabilizing missions, disinformation campaigns, election interference, and hacking, among other things.
Since Israel dramatically increased the ante with incursions into Lebanon, there has been an increase in the fear that Iran will take action. Prior, troops and tanks poured across the front following quite a while of decimating air-strikes disabled Hezbollah. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed on Friday by an Israeli air campaign that made the network easier to attack from the ground. However, Israel escalated its military action in spite of Western pleas for diplomacy and calm as the world prepares for an explosion of violence.
IDF incursions following Hezbollah’s 8,000 rockets and other missiles fired into Israel since Hamas’ attacks on mostly civilians in Gaza on October 7 that forced between 60,000 and 80,000 Israelis to flee their homes near the northern border.
Practically, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants them to return home safely, and he wants to eliminate the Hezbollah threat for a long time militarily. Israel may wish to establish a buffer by driving Hezbollah 18 miles northward over the Litani River. However, by destroying Hezbollah’s attack tunnels and underground caches, only ground troops can accomplish this. Or then again, Israel might go a lot further as it did in 2006.
Over the past two weeks, Israeli attacks have killed more than 1,000 people, including 87 children, 56 women, and many Hezbollah members. As many as one million people, or a fifth of the population, may have fled their homes, according to Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
Fearing Israeli attacks, even some Syrian refugees have returned to their home country. In the coming weeks and months, this war will have a ripple effect on the entire region, which will unavoidably spread worldwide, and Lebanon is already in a dire economic crisis.