Kamala Harris has just a three-point lead over Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, with Harris at 45% and Trump at 42%, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.
As the two candidates remain closely contested in the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has just a three-point lead over Republican Donald Trump (45% to 42%). Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
While the lead between the two remained unchanged compared to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted a week ago, the new poll, which ended on Sunday, offers signs that voters, especially Democrats, are enjoying this year’s election and may be more enthusiastic about it than they were before the presidential election. Democrat Joe Biden defeated Trump in the November 2020 election. In the three-day poll, about 78% of registered voters said they were “completely certain” they would vote in the presidential election, including 86% of Democrats and 81% of Republicans. The percentage of people who said they would definitely vote was higher than in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted October 23-27, 2020, in which 74% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans said they would definitely vote in the return.
The poll had a margin of error of about 4 percentage points.
Harris entered the race in July after Biden ended his reelection bid following a poor performance in the June debate with Trump. She was widely seen as the front-runner at the time, due in part to President Trump’s perceived strength on the economy, which has eased in recent months after years of high inflation under Biden.
More recently, voters appear to have been buoyed by their selection of Harris as the candidate better at health care and dealing with political extremism, but the latest reports suggest that voters are also ranking the U.S. economy as the most important issue in the election. The poll also saw Trump as the better economic manager.
When voters were deciding who was better at dealing with political extremism and threats to democracy, Harris led Trump by 5 points (43% to 38%). She was 14 points ahead of him on health policy. On both questions, Harris’ lead over Trump has been consistent since the March 20-23 Reuters/Ipsos poll. It was little changed in September.
When voters were asked which candidate was the better candidate on “economy, unemployment and jobs,” Trump led Harris 45% to 40%. This area was listed as a top national priority by 26% of poll respondents, compared with 23%. Political extremism was listed by 1% and health care by 3%.
Trump now has a 5-point lead on the economy, compared with a 2-point lead in the March 20-23 poll. September.
While national polls such as the Reuters/Ipsos poll provide an important insight into voter views, the results of each state’s Electoral College will determine the winner, with seven battleground states likely to determine the winner. Polls show Harris and Trump neck and neck in these battleground states, with many results within the margin of error.
Given the close race, the candidates’ efforts to ensure their supporters actually vote will likely be crucial in determining the winner. The U.S. Census Bureau and Pew Research Center estimate that just two-thirds of U.S. adults voted in the November 2020 election, marking the highest voter turnout in more than 100 years.
About one-third of registered voters are Democrats, one-third are Republicans, and the rest are independents or other supporters, according to Pew.
Although voters were relatively enthusiastic about voting, neither candidate was popular with the majority of voters. Only 46% of voters in the survey said they had a favorable view of Harris, compared with 42% who said the same about Trump.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 938 U.S. adults nationwide online, including 807 registered voters. Of those, 769 considered themselves most likely to vote on Election Day. Among likely voters, Harris led Trump by three points, 47% to 44%.
