Exit polls 2024: The decision of the Congress to skip exit poll debates on television channels triggered a row even before the predictions are set to come.
The much-awaited exit poll predictions 2024 will start coming in after 6.30pm today after the embargo period stipulated by the Election Commission.
Apart from the Lok Sabha elections, assembly elections were held in Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim. Exit polls are predictions based on what voters said while exiting the booth after exercising their franchise. Agencies like Axis My India, Today’s Chanakya, IPSOS, CVoter, CSDS conduct exit polls.
Exit polls in 2019: How accurate they are
Do not blindly rely on polling day vote predictions as errors are always possible. Even in the recent past, it was not uncommon for polling day polls to be wrong. However, in 2019 and 2014, predictions derived from polling day surveys shook the mood in the country significantly.
In 2019, polling day polls predicted an average of 306 seats for the NDA and 120 for the UPA. However, the actual results showed that the NDA won 352 seats and the BJP won 303 seats, disappointing the predictions. The UPA won 93 seats at that time and the Congress won 52.
| Exit Poll agency | NDA | UPA |
| India Today-Axis | 339-365 | 77-108 |
| News 24-Today’s Chanakya | 350 | 95 |
| News18-IPSOS | 336 | 82 |
| Times Now VMR | 306 | 132 |
| India TV-CNX | 300 | 120 |
| Sudarshan News | 305 | 124 |
| Actual Result | 353 | 93 |
2014 By-election polls: How accurate was this
2014 saw the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA record a landslide victory, with many in support. -Despite the NDA’s predicted power grab, the election polls failed to measure up. They narrowly missed out on a big lead for the NDA. Eight by-election polls on average predicted 283 seats for the NDA and 105 for the UPA. The NDA is given 336 seats and the BJP 282. The UPA scores 60 points and the Congress 44 points.
| Exit Poll agency | NDA | UPA |
| India Today-Cicero | 272 | 115 |
| News 24-Chanakya | 340 | 101 |
| CNN IBN-CSDS | 280 | 97 |
| Times Now ORG | 249 | 148 |
| ABP News-Nielsen | 274 | 97 |
| NDTV-Hansa Research | 279 | 103 |
| Actual Result | 336 | 60 |
What will be different in 2024?
The 2024 elections will not be between the NDA and the UPA, but between the NDA and a new opposition grouping, India. Ahead of the elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set an ambitious target of “400 seats” for the NDA, with the BJP alone expected to win over 370 seats.
The Congress has already announced that it will not take part in any election-day debates on TV channels to fuel “speculation and noise around TRP”.