According to YouGov’s final polling projections for the election campaign, Labour is on track for a landslide victory with a majority of 212 seats as of Thursday.
This would give Sir Keir Starmer the largest single-party majority since 1832, breaking a number of electoral records, YouGov’s latest MRP said.
This projection would see some of the biggest names in Conservative politics lose their seats, including 16 of the 26 current cabinet ministers, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt.
The list of likely losers also includes former Conservative leaders such as Sir Iain Duncan Smith and future leadership candidates such as Miriam Cates.
Labour would win 431 seats, the highest number in the party’s history, according to YouGov. This would surpass the previous record of 419 seats achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. In electoral terms, this would make Sir Keir the most successful Labour leader in history.
This is more than double the 202 seats won by Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party in 2019.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives are aiming for 102 seats, significantly fewer than the 165 they won under Sir John Major in 1997. This means they have lost more than two-thirds of the 365 seats they won in 2019 under Boris Johnson.
Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats are expected to win 72 seats, surpassing their previous high of 62 in 2005 under Charles Kennedy.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is estimated to win three seats, while the Green Party will win two. The SNP will fall to 18 seats, down from 48 in 2019, according to YouGov.
This is YouGov’s final forecast for the election, a key estimate with the polling organisation believing the projected majority could be between 132 and 282.
Within the polling organisation’s margin of error, Labour could get between 391 and 466 seats, and Conservative seats between 78 and 129.
The Liberal Democrats could get between 57 and 87, while the SNP could get between 8 and 34, Reform could get between 0 and 34, Green between 1 and 4, and Plaid between 1 and 4.
To arrive at this figure, the polling team surveyed 47,758 British voters from 19 June to 2 July.
This would mean a bleak national picture as the Conservatives would become a party mainly represented in the South East, South West and East of England. They will be largely wiped out, although Johnson fared much better in the North East, North West and Wales.
YouGov predicts the vote to be Labour 39%, Conservative 22%, Reform 15%, Lib Dem 12%, Green 7%, SNP 3%, 1% Plaid and 2% others – roughly the same as in a YouGov MRP poll from two weeks ago.
This suggests a Conservative to Labour swing of 14.3%, which is bigger than the 10.2% swing from Conservative to Labour in 1997.
YouGov’s forecasts suggest that a significant number of the Conservative party’s most prominent politicians will lose their seats.
These include Mr Hunt in Godalming and Ash, who is expected to lose to the Lib Dems, and leadership candidate in Welwyn Hatfield, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, who could lose to Labour.
Conservative leader Richard Haldane could also lose to Labour in Basildon and Billericay, while House of Commons leader and other leadership candidate Penny Mordaunt could lose to Labour in Portsmouth North.
Labour’s Thangam Devonair could be the only member of Starmer’s frontbench team to lose his seat, while the seat of Bristol Central could go to the Greens.
