Between diplomatic advances of recent years with warring parties and being located geographically in the crossfire, Saudis and Emiratis uniquely positioned to mediate calm : Israel.
Gulf states are pushing to stop a full-blown regional war after Iran’s unprecedented retaliatory strikes on Israel, sources in the region said, fearing new escalation could put them on the front lines of a conflagration and ruin plans to reshape the region.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in particular may be well placed to triangulate between Iran, Israel, and the United States, after diplomatic advances in recent years that benefited all those countries.
As allies of Washington, the Gulf monarchies have sought to stabilize relations with Iran and Israel to address long-standing security concerns and allow them to focus on national projects.
The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed normalization deals with Israel in 2020, and Saudi Arabia was considering a similar deal that would include a U.S. defense deal until diplomacy failed over the Gaza war. Riyadh also settled with Iran last year after a years-long feud.
However, with Israel clashing with Iran-backed Hamas in the Gaza Strip since October 7, and Hamas terrorists killing nearly 1,200 people, most of them dead, détente is now at an all-time high. facing the greatest threat. A crisis is looming in the area, where 253 civilians and other people have been abducted.
A direct war between Israel and Iran could quickly spread to the Gulf states, which have airspace between them and several U.S. military bases sworn to protect their Israeli ally.
No one wants escalation,” a source close to Gulf governments said,everyone wants to contain the situation,” and there is likely to be extensive telephone diplomacy going on. he added.
“The pressure is not just on Iran. Israel is now under pressure not to retaliate,” the official said, adding that the consequences of Israeli attacks on key Iranian strongholds “will be felt throughout the region. It will have an impact,” he added.
Another Gulf source familiar with the authorities’ thinking said the Gulf states, Iraq and Jordan, are urging both Iran and the United States, Israel’s main backer, not to escalate. Both sources said the US has already urged Israel to show restraint.
At the same time, the United States was using the Gulf states to send a message to Iran not to escalate further, a person familiar with the official’s thinking added.
“It is clear that the United States is using its Arab allies in the Gulf to convey messages between Iran and the Americans,” the official said. There is agreement on that.”
Reuters contacted both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for comment on their response to the crisis.
Still, both Gulf sources and analysts said the most dangerous period may have passed.
The Iranians opened fire,” said Abdulaziz al-Sagar, director of the pro-government Gulf Research Center, noting that the escalation phase is over for Iran, and the US government does not want an escalation from Israel. , he added. .
Risks
There have been many recent reminders of Gulf states’ vulnerability.
Iran on Saturday seized a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow stretch of water through which most Gulf energy exports pass, and has threatened to close shipping lanes there entirely.
Meanwhile Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi group, against which Saudi Arabia was fighting for years until moving towards a peace deal in December, has repeatedly attacked shipping and deployed drones towards Israel, skirting Saudi airspace in recent months.
Before peace talks gained momentum last year, the Houthis had attacked in recent years key Saudi Arabian energy facilities several times and retain the capacity to do so again.
In 2019, they hit key facilities in Saudi Arabia that process the vast majority of the country’s crude oil output and in 2022 they attacked three oil tanker trucks in the UAE.
“A conflagration will see the price of oil shooting up. The traffic of oil will be affected,” the source said, describing likely outcomes of a wider regional war.
Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has for years sought to focus on his ambitious vision of developing megaprojects in the kingdom without geopolitical interference.
Saudi Arabia’s economic ambitions are central to Riyadh’s efforts to ease tensions with Iran, but Saudi Arabia is also deeply concerned about security, said Saudi analyst Aziz Arghassian. .
“This is not just about projects in our wealthy areas… She doesn’t want to get caught in the crossfire between Israel, Iran and the United States,” he said.
The war in Gaza was already straining the Entente.
The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain made peace with Israel in 2020 through the so-called “Abraham Accords,” and Saudi Arabia considered following suit in exchange for U.S. security commitments.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Iran last year restored diplomatic relations and resolved a destructive decades-long feud that fueled conflict in the region with an agreement that avoids undermining each other’s interests.
But the devastation in the Gaza Strip has derailed further peace efforts with Israel, and Iran’s support for its Shiite Muslim allies in the region, which has attacked US military bases in Iraq and elsewhere, has raised concerns in the Gulf. It’s causing it.
The fact that détente allowed Gulf states to reduce regional tensions was likely seen in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi as confirmation that the policy was working, Arghassian said.
“If Saudi Arabia and Iran had not normalized and improved relations, Saudi Arabia would be much more anxious than it is now,” he said.