The switch of candidates from the aging Joe Biden to his running mate Kamala Harris has put the party back on the ballot in this year’s general election, after what seemed to be a crushing defeat for Donald Trump’s reelection as the presidential candidate.
It still seems like a close race. And even if Harris wins the election, she may not be able to take office as president.
A lot could also depend on how well the Democratic candidates fare further down the electoral roll. It could be up to the US Congress to uphold the Constitution.
If Trump “lose” to Harris, there is probably still a legitimate way for him to get back into the White House.
Trump supporters are already preparing for this fight – fueled by carefully non-specific rhetorical encouragement with incoherent comments about himself.
Whether Trump’s protests about his 2020 loss were a “big lie” or evidence of “the big theft” – as most Republicans now claim, he intended to do it again if he lost.
At the very least, America will be in political and legal turmoil for a few months after the next election on November 5th.
It could be a lot worse. President Biden told CBS this month that he has “no confidence at all” that there will be a peaceful transition if Harris is elected president.
President Trump told an audience in March that “if I don’t get elected, it will be a disaster,” but it was unclear whether he was simply talking about the prospects for the auto industry in Dayton, Ohio.
Smaller politicians are clumsier.
Republican Senator George Lang of Ohio apologized after declaring, “If we lose, it will take a civil war to save this country.”
He took credit for the slogan “Bikers for Trump,” or “Fight!” Fight! Fight!” President Trump also yelled, raising his fist, after the assassination attempt.
How Trump Was Able to Win with the Fewest Vote-Again
A successful candidate does not necessarily need to receive the most votes to win the presidency.
The winner needs the support of a majority of the Electoral College, or at least 270 out of 538.
Strictly speaking, the electoral votes determine the composition of the electoral college for each state; membership does not directly reflect the opinion of the American people as a whole.
Republican candidates who lost the popular vote, including Trump and George W. Bush, have become U.S. president in three of the last seven elections.
In 2000, the Florida dispute went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which ruled in Bush’s favor. Since then, Trump has made three appointments that have swayed the court in his favor, and if a lawsuit were to arise, the justices would likely side with him.
The former president is trying to sow the seeds of chaos
Trump repeatedly tells his rally participants that they must do two things: they must vote, and they must stop the Democrats from cheating.
This is just one example of how he tries to undermine confidence in the legitimacy of the democratic process he is participating in. From the beginning, he lays the groundwork to contest the results if they go against him.
This strategy is well known in modern US election campaigns, first formulated in 2016 by Republican strategist Roger Stone under the title “Stop the Steal” in case things don’t go his way.
They did, and at the end of his presidential term, Trump commuted Stone’s prison sentence for lying to Congress. As seen in the recent TV documentary “A Storm Foretold,” Stone was bitterly disappointed that he did not receive a full pardon, but he has once again supported Trump in this election campaign.
Even if Trump loses the election, he may have succeeded in creating chaos and confusion that would cast doubt on the results.
He could then take legal action at the state level and in Congress, which could even tip the results in his favor.
This year, election officials have until December 11 to certify the results in the states.
It is legally possible for some factions to use alleged problems with the conduct of the election to invalidate the votes and appoint their own representatives to the Electoral College instead.
Otherwise, her state’s votes may be excluded by the university, making it even more difficult for Harris to reach 270 votes.
If no candidate wins an absolute majority, the House of Representatives will take over the decision of who will succeed her according to the “one state, one vote” principle. Given the number of sparsely populated “red states”, it will almost certainly be the Republicans who decide who should take the oath of office on January 20, 2025.
After the 2020 election, a majority of Republican lawmakers voted not to certify Biden’s victory.
“No chance” of a fair election
Last month, Rolling Stone magazine reported: “Trump election conspirators are currently working as county election officials, questioning the legitimacy of the election and delaying or refusing to certify the results,” according to the report, which cites 70 per cent of the voters.
Of these 70, 22 have already “refuted or delayed certification” of previous elections in eight states. At a recent rally in the battleground state of Georgia, President Trump singled out three anonymous local elections officials for “a great job.”
Trump and his allies are doing all they can to discredit the election in advance, whatever the outcome.
Mike Howell, executive director of the Heritage Foundation’s oversight project, an influential organization that Liz Truss adores, has already decided: “As things stand, there is zero percent chance that we will have a free and fair election.
I have publicly stated that the Biden administration has created a situation in which most rational politicians and officials cannot certify the election in good conscience.” Trump: “If we don’t win, it’s because of the circumstances. It’s always about the fairness of the election.” This month, he claimed that “no one” showed up to a massive rally in support of Harris-Waltz in Minnesota and that images of the crowd broadcast live on television were manipulated by AI.
Left-wing US Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont commented: “Donald Trump may be crazy, but he’s not stupid… Trump is clearly, and dangerously, laying the groundwork to reject the results of the election if he loses.
If you support your supporters, if you can convince the thousands of people who attended televised rallies that they don’t exist, it shouldn’t be hard to convince them that the election results in Pennsylvania, Michigan and elsewhere are ‘rigged’ and ‘fraudulent.'”
Of course, Trump broke his promise to the mob he invited to Washington DC on January 6, 2021, and did not storm the U.S. Capitol with them. Their violent protests did not prevent Vice President Mike Pence from the final certification of Biden’s victory.
Optimists hope that tough legal prosecutions of those involved in the January 6th attack, including a 22-year prison sentence for Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio, will deter a new pro-Trump insurrection. That could lead some Republican lawmakers to refuse to support the attempted voter fraud.
What is certain is that even if US television networks “call” Harris’ election in 2024, it is too early for Democrats to celebrate.