Figures released on Friday show turnout down in some Labour strongholds and up in constituencies where a majority traditionally vote Conservative ”’ Sadiq Khan”.
The latest voter turnout figures suggest Sadiq Khan “could lose the race” to continue as Mayor of London. While some numbers have yet to be released, the picture looks worse for Mr Khan than for his Tory rival Susan Hall – who was a huge outsider.
In the Barnet and Camden constituency turnout has fallen by 3.41 percentage points, according to an UAE breaking analysis comparing 2024 figures with those of the last London mayoral election in 2021.
The City and East constituency, consisting of Barking, Dagenham, City of London, Newham and Tower Hamlets, fell by -3.83 percentage points. These are traditionally Labour-voting areas that contributed to Sadiq Khan’s victory in the last election.
Greenwich and Lewisham lost by -1.67 percentage points, Lambeth and Southwark lost by -1.87 percentage points and the North East constituency, which includes Hackney, Islington and Waltham Forest, lost by -2.43 percentage points.
All of these constituencies voted majority Labour in the last mayoral election.
By contrast, turnout in the non-London constituencies increased by 4.38 percentage points in Bexley and Bromley and 4.02 percentage points in Ealing and Hillingdon. In the 2021 mayoral election, conservatives held a majority in both districts.
Commentators have UAE News concern on social media about the figures, which will be released ahead of vote counting scheduled to begin at 10am on Saturday (May 4).
Columnist Ian Dunt wrote about you.
Turnout fell in some Labor-held constituencies, but rose by 0.62 percentage points in Enfield and Haringey. In the south-west region of Hounslow, Kingston upon Thames and Richmond upon Thames, turnout decreased by -1.74 percentage points.
This constituency achieved a Conservative majority in 2021, as did West Central (Hammersmith and Fulham, Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster), but our analysis shows that this time constituency decreased by -4.02 percentage points.
“Apathy, anomie and atomization are the big challenges,” author and journalist Paul Mason wrote in Knight.
Rumors of Mr. Hall’s victory began to spread on Friday (May 3), with some supporters guessing based on the worst turnout that they expected the Conservative candidate to win. She campaigned against crime and promised to scrap the expansion of London’s ULEZ scheme.
Mr Khan appeared aware of the risk of losing his campaign due to low voter turnout in a series of X-posts on election day urging his supporters to go to the polls. He highlighted his own record on pollution, housing and the provision of free school meals.
He sought to distance himself from Labor’s line on the Israel-Hamas war and called for a ceasefire in Gaza. Conservative colleague Robert Hayward predicted Mr Khan would avoid a backlash by doing so.
London’s outer boroughs tend to favor the Conservatives and appear to have increased turnout compared to inner-city wards, which often support Labour, but this is not the case in all cases.
The turnout figures released by London Elects so far:
Barnet and Camden: 39.59 percent (electorate 413,809)
Bexley and Bromley: 48.38 percent (electorate 421,800)
Brent and Harrow: 37.09 percent (428,775)
City and East: 31.17 percent (628,856)
Croydon and Sutton: 42.27 percent (440,715)
Ealing and Hillingdon: 42.98 percent (453,892)
Enfield and Haringey: 41.38 percent (399,677)
Greenwich and Lewisham: 40.33 percent (399,703)
Havering and Redbridge: 42.94 percent
Lambeth and Southwark: 39.13 percent (448,552)
Merton and Wandsworth: 45.99 percent (384,678)
North East: 39.57 percent (524,885)
South West: 45.26 percent (455,381)
West Central: 34.98 percent (359,208)