There is much at stake for Americans as they head to the polls in a presidential election that is expected to have major repercussions around the world.
The UAE Breaking team of experts examines what a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory would mean for Britons worried about far-right violence and the pillars of democracy.
From defence, race relations, the monarchy and the environment to health, crime, the economy, consumers and the special relationship with Britain, there are stark differences between the two candidates. In rally after rally, Trump appealed to his supporters to give the Democrats a victory that was “too big to mess with”.
Christopher Bucktin, US Editor
The “special relationship” between the US and Britain has undoubtedly cooled under Joe Biden. The president’s personal and political leanings are often at the forefront, and his Irish ancestry and opposition to Brexit have pushed the country into the background in diplomatic affairs.
British influence in Washington has seemed marginalized as the Biden administration has prioritized other alliances and at times downplayed the UK on key issues such as trade agreements. But this election gives the country a chance to regain its footing, for a fresh start.
Given his obvious affection for Britain, a Trump victory could be favorable. The administration will likely focus on trade and security ties with the UK, but don’t be fooled. The businesswoman is not in good spirits towards the new Labour government after party staff recently visited each state to campaign for Harris.
Repairing ties with Sir Keir’s team will be essential for a pragmatic diplomacy. Still, President Trump’s praise for the UK could pave the way for a new deal, albeit one that may come with his trademark unpredictability. Meanwhile, a win for Harris could bring about a different kind of fresh start.
Unlike Biden, given her inexperience in international diplomacy, she may see the special relationship as a strategic priority given the current growing turmoil on a global scale. Your government will have an opportunity to restore trust and cooperation by aligning with the UK on issues such as climate change and defence.
There is potential to restore the traditional ties that many in UK politics believe Biden has weakened. Through President Trump’s overtures and Harris diplomacy, today’s election marks a new chapter. For both the UK and the US, it could be a chance to strengthen transatlantic relations at a critical time when the world remains in turmoil.
Chris Hughes, Defence and Security Editor
A President Trump presidency would pose challenges for UK defence as he could pressure the US and NATO allies over threats from Ukraine and Russia. In a worst-case scenario, he may want to withdraw from NATO and has said he would be willing to reduce aid to Ukraine if there was an all-out invasion by Vladimir Putin.
There will probably be more pressure to provide more support to Ukraine and other NATO countries than if Harris had won. In my view, a Harris victory would be more stable for the world, but the Biden administration’s broad support for Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon could put new pressure on the UK.
I think a Harris victory would be good for the UK’s defense and world stability, but it could cause problems for the UK in terms of defending itself against terrorism. Britain’s material support for Israel, along with its support for the Biden administration, has attracted the attention of anti-Israel extremists, but a Trump victory would likely be even worse.
Many on the right believe a Trump victory would be good for world security, but I think they’re wrong – a Harris victory would mean a more stable, less military threat, and a more secure future.
Tom Pettifor, Crime Editor
The violence that hit British towns and villages this summer was fuelled by online misinformation, far-right and anti-immigrant sentiment.
All of these factors could become even bigger problems in the coming years if Trump returns to the White House. Richard Grenell, a leading supporter of President Trump, insisted that the rioters were not politically far-right and accused Prime Minister Keir Starmer of “eliminating” opponents.
And tech billionaire Elon Musk, one of President Trump’s main financial backers, stoked fears by saying “civil war is inevitable.” The X owner (formerly Twitter) posted these remarks on his platform in response to a video showing people pointing fireworks at police.
Sir Keir’s spokesman said his comments were “unjustified” and added that social media companies “have more to do and should do.” Musk then responded to the Prime Minister’s post on Twitter, saying, “It is clear that Mr Musk has a great deal of influence over a potential Trump administration and would welcome further easing of restrictions on social media platforms like X.” This could lead to further lies and extremist views being spread, increasing the likelihood of further violence in the future.
If Kamala Harris wins, British police chiefs won’t have to worry so much. But no matter who is in power, it will continue to be the case that US and UK law enforcement agencies will continue to work closely together to combat international organized crime, terrorism, human trafficking and child sexual abuse.
Nada Farhoud, Environmental Editor
The importance of the US presidential election cannot be understated. Its outcome will have implications far beyond the borders of the United States, especially with regard to the climate crisis.
Vice President Harris has not yet laid out a detailed plan, but she calls global warming an “existential threat” and wants to accelerate the energy transition away from fossil fuels. Former President Trump, on the other hand, wants to stop global warming. He has already called climate change “one of the biggest hoaxes of all time” and said he ramped up oil and gas production, including in the Arctic, during his time in the White House.
During his first term, he withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement and said he would do so again after President Biden quickly did. Worryingly, it could be much harder for another Democratic president to overturn the agreement this time, according to legal experts who have reviewed the 900-plus page Project 2025 policy blueprint drawn up by Trump supporters.
Another four years of President Trump will see other countries also take their climate policies in the wrong direction as the planet heads towards catastrophic warming. A few days after tomorrow’s election, Azerbaijan will host COP29, the UN climate summit, where it will seek to impose urgently needed cuts in the burning of fossil fuels that scientists say are essential to combat the most devastating effects of climate change that we will avoid.
It is important that the participating leaders not only agree to reduce their reliance on burning fossil fuels, but also commit to an end date for phasing it out completely and replacing it with renewable energy sources. The longer this step is delayed, the more severe and frequent weather events such as the tragic floods in Spain will become.
The fact that the president of the world’s richest country and the world’s largest emitter is threatening to do so will cast a dark shadow over the negotiations in Baku. But the worst thing is that a Trump victory would have devastating effects on climate protection, repercussions that will last for decades to come.
Russell Myers, Royal Editor
The royal family and those in power at Buckingham Palace will be closely monitoring the US elections. The power of soft diplomacy cannot be underestimated, and the monarch will be asked to host state visits with the support of senior royals to facilitate the transition of the so-called “special relationship”.
But if Trump arrives in the White House for a second time, the royal family may take action sooner or later. President Trump relished the opportunity to visit the UK in 2019, where he was welcomed by the late Queen at Buckingham Palace with the First Lady, toured the Royal Collection and Westminster Abbey, and attended a glittering state dinner.
The president praised the “enduring friendship” between Britain and the United States, and the queen spoke of an alliance that has ensured “the security and prosperity of our two peoples for decades.” But billionaire Donald Jr. said last week that the special relationship was “certainly not off to a good start” if Trump won, and that there would be riots at 10 Downing Street.
After it was revealed that a Labour activist had volunteered for the Harris-Waltz campaign team, the Trump campaign filed a formal complaint against the Labour Party, accusing it of “blatant foreign interference” in the US election.
The Royal Family does its best to stay out of politics, at least in public, but the moves of the US and the next president could have significant implications for King Charles’ government and create further liability for the King and Queen, or for any other royals making state visits across the pond.
If Kamala Harris wins the election, things could be very different for all involved. But concerns remain about Britain’s role on the international stage amid growing calls for a redress of the growing republican movement in the other 14 British kingdoms where Charles is king. The world is constantly changing, a theme perfectly expressed in the race for the White House.
Graham Hiscott, Managing Director
The outcome of the US election could have an impact on the finances of millions of people in the UK, depending on who wins and their actions. Investment bank Peel Hunt highlighted the potential impact on the UK stock market, which is important for many in the country, whether they own shares directly, through an ISA or, if they are invested in shares, through a pension.
The bank’s analysts said that whether Democrat Harris or Republican Trump wins, their policies will “have far-reaching implications for the global economy and financial markets. Overall, both pose downside risks.”
Furthermore, “Both candidates have proposed a series of growth-reducing measures that, if implemented, could have a negative impact on US economic performance.” As the saying goes, “When America sneezes, the world catches a cold. It could therefore affect economic growth around the world, including in the UK.
A particularly highlighted political move is President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on products imported into the US. If he wins and goes through with the election, it could lead to higher prices for British products, from cars to whisky. Analysts believe that President Trump’s tariff policies, as well as his immigration and tax policies, could increase inflationary pressures, but Harris is seen as a likely candidate to continue.
Martin Baggott, Health Editor
The direct impact of the US election on UK health will be limited, but President Trump’s motives for the NHS will be in question. If President Trump wins the White House, talk of the NHS being “included” in any UK-US trade deal will likely be rekindled.
During his term as leader of the free world in 2019, President Trump insisted “everything is on the table” during an awkward joint press conference with then Prime Minister Theresa May. Since then, the promised post-Brexit trade deal with the US has yet to materialise.
But the remarks raised concerns that the Trump administration might encourage US medical companies to award outsourcing contracts to run NHS services, or undermine states’ collective bargaining power to drive up drug prices. But at a NATO summit in London in late 2019, President Trump contradicted his earlier remarks, saying the US wanted “nothing to do” with the NHS.
The US election comes at a time when Health Secretary Wes Streeting has signalled he is open to greater involvement of for-profit companies in running the NHS. It is hard to say how Harris’ move to the White House would have a direct impact on the NHS.
Natasha Winarczyk, Consumer Editor
The US is the favourite destination for Brits outside Europe, with 3.9 million people visiting last year. However, a Donald Trump presidency could make it even more difficult for some Brits to travel to the US, even for a holiday.
President Trump is expected to reinstate and extend the “Muslim travel ban” from his first term, which banned people from seven countries, including Iran, Syria and Sudan, from entering the US. British nationals with dual nationality from these countries will not be able to receive an ESTA for one-way travel and will need to apply for a visa to enter the US.
However, this could take a long time, especially if applicants are subject to additional scrutiny, which is likely in this scenario. A similar situation exists for people in Cuba, a popular travel destination for Brits since January 2021.
A bit of good news for Brits is that Trump’s popularity has faded in the polls and the dollar has started to fall. So a Harris win could mean more money for holidays in the US.
Melissa Sighod, Community Reporter
A Trump win would be a victory for fanatics around the world. After a campaign packed with blatant racist rhetoric against blacks and Latinos, the upcoming trailer is a horror movie indeed.
But it’s not just for the US, but for people in the UK, whose politics reflect a carnival of extreme racial hatred and bigotry. We’re not far behind in the race to become a far-right nation that prides itself on white supremacy masquerading as patriotism; an unwelcoming country that demonizes those who seek refuge in an increasingly warlike world.
So while the current administration does not make overtly racist statements, the growing American climate will undoubtedly push the boundaries of what is accepted as normal. But Britain can still resist the path to destruction and refuse to dance to its tune, provided it avoids rhetoric that attacks black and brown people in the streets and seeks to unite the country at a time when it needs it most.
If Harris wins, it will be a provisional victory. In a world more divided than ever, those who want to remain in power cannot stand by and watch. The former president, whose years of destruction have caused, has opened a Pandora’s box of bigotry and racism. He normalized rhetoric that once humiliated people and brought it into the mainstream, to the point of being broadcast on television not only in the US but also in the UK. Trump missed his chance, but here in the UK, a few more “Trumps” are waiting to carry on his legacy of hate.
Those who consider him a friend are building their own base in the form of the ruling party of Reform. Let us not forget that this year, as racial unrest brought the country to a standstill, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak was called the “P-word.” The pressure is on those who have placed their power in the hands of racists who want to “take back their country,” because they want it now more than ever. Meanwhile, Trump supporters will patiently wait for their chance to seize the moment.